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PSX soars as pre-budget optimism fuels rally

The stock market maintained its bullish momentum on Tuesday, driven by optimism over the upcoming federal budget, expectations of an expansion in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme, and strong economic indicators.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index surged 1,559.5 points (1.36%) to reach an intraday high of 115,889.60, while the session’s low stood at 114,694.91, as investors capitalised on value stocks across key sectors.

The market’s rally was primarily fuelled by investors’ anticipation of fiscal incentives for the construction sector in the forthcoming budget. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s recent statements on supporting the industry and boosting economic reforms further strengthened investor confidence.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s technical team on climate finance initiated discussions with Pakistani authorities on Monday, exploring the potential imposition of a carbon levy in the upcoming budget. The negotiations are part of efforts to augment the existing $7 billion EFF with an additional $1.2 to $1.5 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

The IMF review mission is expected to visit Islamabad from March 4, engaging in 10 to 12 days of discussions on various economic sectors before presenting its report to the IMF Executive Board within 4 to 6 weeks, contingent upon a successful staff-level agreement.

If finalised, Pakistan’s total IMF funding could increase to between $8.2 billion and $8.5 billion.

The finance czar also reiterated the government’s commitment to expanding the tax base, boosting foreign exchange reserves, and facilitating business growth.

Addressing journalists in Lahore on Sunday, he emphasised the rising number of remittance senders—now at 35 million—and the increasing inflows into Roshan Digital Accounts (RDA).

Aurangzeb further stressed the government’s support for the construction industry while ensuring to curb speculative activities in the real estate sector.

Speaking at a separate event in Faisalabad a day earlier, he reaffirmed that Pakistan’s economy is progressing due to structural reforms, highlighting the lower policy rate, single-digit inflation, and growing tax revenues as signs of economic stability.

The PSX experienced early-session volatility, with the KSE-100 initially facing selling pressure before rebounding on mid-session value-hunting. The benchmark index closed at 114,330.10 points on Monday, gaining 1,529.17 points (1.36%), after hitting a low of 111,857.34 earlier in the session.

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